Extra Belly Fat, Not BMI, a Stronger Predictor of Heart Failure Risk

on PinterestReducing inflammation could help lower heart failure risk in people with excess belly fat.

on PinterestReducing inflammation could help lower heart failure risk in people with excess belly fat. Milena Magazin/Getty Images

Researchers say extra abdominal fat is strongly associated with an increased risk of heart failure.
Excess belly fat contributes to systemic inflammation, which endangers cardiovascular health.
The researchers recommend that medical professionals measure waist circumference and inflammation to identify people at risk for heart-related conditions.

A new study reports that excess belly fat is more strongly associated with an increased risk of heart failure than a person’s overall body weight or their body mass index (BMI) measurement.

The researchers say that systemic inflammation is a key factor in the link between abdominal fat and heart disease risk. They estimate that one-quarter to one-third of the association is explained by inflammation.

These findings suggest that reducing inflammation is a potential treatment strategy to reduce the risk of heart failure in people with excess abdominal fat.

The research has not yet been published in a peer-reviewed journal, but is being presented March 17–20 at the AHA’s EPI/Lifestyle Scientific Sessions 2026 conference in Boston.

The researchers said they hope their analysis will encourage new approaches to heart health monitoring.

“This research helps us understand why some people develop heart failure despite having a body weight that seems healthy,” said Szu-Han Chen, the lead author of the study and a medical student at National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University in Taiwan, in a statement.

“By monitoring waist size and inflammation, clinicians may be able to identify people with higher risk earlier and focus on prevention strategies that could reduce the chance of heart failure before symptoms begin,” Chen continued.

Belly fat, inflammation, and heart health

This new research follows a scientific statement published by the American Heart Association (AHA) in May 2025.

In that statement, medical professionals explained that inflammation in the body can disrupt a person’s immune system, damage blood vessels, and lead to the buildup of scar tissue in the heart.

The Heart Association has also launched a Systematic Inflammation Data Challenge, encouraging collaboration on how inflammation contributes to heart disease and related conditions.

Experts not involved in the study told Healthline that this new research is important.

“This study reinforces an important concept in cardiology: where fat is stored in the body may matter more than total body weight alone,” said Kevin Shah, MD, a cardiologist and program director of Heart Failure Outreach at MemorialCare Heart & Vascular Institute at the Long Beach Medical Center in California.

“One practical takeaway from this study is that clinicians and patients may want to pay more attention to waist circumference and central obesity, since those measures may reveal cardiovascular risk even in individuals whose BMI appears normal,” Shah said.

Mir Ali, MD, a bariatric surgeon and medical director of the MemorialCare Surgical Weight Loss Center at Orange Coast Medical Center in California, agreed.

“This is a strong study that aligns with existing research indicating that central or truncal obesity poses a greater risk for cardiovascular disease than peripheral obesity,” Ali said.